Document Type

Article

Publication Date

11-2017

Publication Title

Ecology Letters

Volume

21

Issue

1

Publisher

Wiley

Abstract

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship.

Comments

This manuscript has been published in Ecology Letters. Please find the published version here (note that a subscription is necessary to access this version):

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12877/full

Wiley holds the copyright in this article.

Download

Included in

Biology Commons

Share

COinS