Date of Award
12-2025
Document Type
Dissertation
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Department
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences
Committee Chair/Advisor
Whitney Huang
Committee Member
Andrew Brown
Committee Member
Brook Russell
Committee Member
Qiong Zhang
Abstract
Uncertainty is an inherent feature of scientific modeling and decision-making, necessitating rigorous quantification to ensure reliable inference and robust applications. This dissertation addresses uncertainty quantification (UQ) across three distinct yet interconnected projects, each illustrating different facets and challenges of UQ. The first project focuses on estimating r-year return levels for storm surges caused by hurricanes, where UQ is critical to propagate uncertainty from hurricane characteristics through complex input-output relationships and extreme value statistical modeling. The second project develops dynamic surrogate models to improve sequential decision-making in autonomous vehicle control, capturing temporal dependencies using methodologies commonly applied in multifidelity contexts to enhance online optimization performance under uncertainty. The third project investigates multivariate bias correction for climate model outputs, aiming to correct future projections by leveraging past model and observational data while preserving essential temporal and inter-variable structures. Beyond traditional statistics, this work emphasizes comprehensive modeling of uncertainty sources, including model discrepancy and distributional shifts, and employs Gaussian Processes and conditional modeling to robustly propagate uncertainty. Together, these projects demonstrate innovative methodologies for UQ in environmental risk assessment, autonomous systems, and climate science, providing generalizable frameworks that enhance decision-making reliability under uncertainty.
Recommended Citation
Kreuser, Katherine, "Uncertainty Quantification in Extreme Value Modeling, Online Optimization, and Bias Correction" (2025). All Dissertations. 4143.
https://open.clemson.edu/all_dissertations/4143
Author ORCID Identifier
0000-0001-8380-911X
Included in
Applied Statistics Commons, Climate Commons, Other Applied Mathematics Commons, Other Environmental Sciences Commons, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons, Probability Commons, Statistical Methodology Commons, Statistical Models Commons