Date of Award
8-2025
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
Department
Economics
Committee Chair/Advisor
Dr. Babur De Los Santos
Committee Member
Dr. Thomas Evans
Committee Member
Dr. Howard Bodenhorn
Abstract
This study estimates how criminal behavior changes in response to shifts in felony theft thresholds, contributing to broader evidence on the deterrent effects of criminal penalties. Using detailed incident-level crime reports, this study applies econometric techniques to evaluate how offenders responded to reduced penalties. Analyzed within is California’s Proposition 47, which raised the felony threshold for theft-related offenses from $450 to $950. The results show a significant increase in low-level shoplifting (approximately 21%) and more substantial rises (approximately 24% to 30%) in crimes within the threshold overlap ($450 to $950). Additionally, the value stolen in crimes below the $450 threshold increased by approximately 10%, indicating offenders’ strategic responses to reduced penalties—particularly where information about the stolen items’ value is readily accessible. Theft incidents demonstrated minimal changes, with coefficients being sensitive to methodology and insignificant both statistically and in magnitude. The analysis also identifies several systematic police misclassifications, which present challenges in accurately measuring crime impacts. These findings demonstrate that changes in legal penalties can shape offender decision-making, particularly when thresholds are well-known and enforceable, and highlight the need for careful consideration of incentives, enforcement accuracy, and information completeness in criminal justice reform.
Recommended Citation
Simmons, Ezra R., "Criminal Behavior Responses to Changing Penalties: Estimating the Impact of Felony Theft Threshold Changes" (2025). All Theses. 4589.
https://open.clemson.edu/all_theses/4589
Author ORCID Identifier
0009-0007-8623-6346
Included in
Behavioral Economics Commons, Econometrics Commons, Economic Theory Commons, Other Economics Commons, Public Economics Commons